1. Background and Motivation

Gas distribution system operators must adapt their infrastructure to declining natural gas demand, climate-neutrality targets, regulatory requirements, technological change, and shifting customer behaviour.
The economic viability of individual network sections depends on factors such as connection density, customer switching rates, replacement investments, gas prices, network tariffs, regulatory requirements, and potential alternative uses. As customer numbers decline, the cost per remaining connection may rise and further accelerate customer migration.
Operators therefore need to evaluate different transformation pathways, including continued operation with natural gas or biomethane, conversion to hydrogen, controlled decommissioning, dismantling, and phased hybrid strategies.
The analysis should distinguish between the perspective of the regulated network operator and that of the gas retail business, as both differ in their investment logic, revenues, customer relationships, and risk exposure.

2. Objective

The objective of this thesis is to develop a decision model for evaluating the future of selected gas network sections or clusters under regulatory, technological, and demand-related uncertainty.
The model should compare:
•    continued operation with natural gas or biomethane,
•    conversion to hydrogen,
•    controlled decommissioning,
•    physical dismantling, and
•    phased or hybrid transformation strategies.
A suitable methodology may combine scenario analysis, techno-economic modelling, investment appraisal, Monte Carlo simulation, and optimisation.
The model should identify key tipping points, including:
•    when continued operation is no longer economically viable,
•    under which conditions hydrogen conversion becomes attractive,
•    when decommissioning is preferable to further investment, and
•    how customer migration, network tariffs, investment timing, and regulation influence the decision.
The expected result is a transparent decision-support framework for deriving differentiated transformation strategies for different network clusters.

3. Profile

Suitable for students in industrial engineering, energy economics, business administration, economics, information systems, operations research, or related disciplines.
Applicants should have:
•    strong analytical and quantitative skills,
•    an interest in energy infrastructure and regulation,
•    basic knowledge of economic modelling and investment appraisal, and
•    experience with Excel and preferably Python, R, MATLAB, or similar tools.

4. Contact

Prof. Dr. Clemens van Dinther
3DSE Management Consultants GmbH
Email: C vanDinther ∂does-not-exist.3dse de

5. Starting Literature

•    Directive (EU) 2024/1788 on the internal markets for renewable gas, natural gas, and hydrogen.
•    Regulation (EU) 2024/1789 on the internal markets for renewable gas, natural gas, and hydrogen.
•    German Energy Industry Act, Energiewirtschaftsgesetz.
•    Bundesnetzagentur: Network Development Plan for Gas and Hydrogen 2025–2037/2045.
•    Oberle et al. (2024): “Analyzing the Regulatory Framework Gaps for Gas Distribution Networks with Decreasing Natural Gas Demand in Germany.”
•    Giehl et al. (2021): “Modelling the Impact of the Energy Transition on Gas Distribution Networks in Germany.”
•    DNV and ACER (2022): “Future Regulatory Decisions on Natural Gas Networks.”